How does SNAP enrollment change after economic downturns?

Ongoing debate is focused around policies that intentionally decrease enrollment, such as employment requirements, and cut costs, like limiting benefit amounts. How should we expect enrollment to change naturally during periods when the economy improves?

SNAP is a countercyclical assistance program, meaning that the enrollment will likely rise in response to disasters or economic recessions. The USDA released a report in September 2012 entitled How Economic Conditions Affect Participation in USDA Nutrition Assistance Programs that we'll use as a starting point.

A 1-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with an additional 2 million–3 million additional SNAP participants. Changes in program policy and administrative practices tend to augment the rise in SNAP participation during economic downturns and contribute to the continued rise in participation during the early stages of economic recovery. (USDA).

For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the time limit restricting enrollment for able-bodied adults without dependents was suspended and was reinstituted June 30th, 2023. So while we shouldn't expect enrollment to drop quickly, enrollment continues to rise for longer than I expected after the designated onset of the downturn.

The officially designated end of recent recessions don't align with SNAP enrollment dropping; enrollment continues to rise The 2001 recession's designation was for 8 months; the Great Recession's was 1.5 years, and the COVID-19 recession for 2 months.